Lyme Disease Ecology Simulation

Investigate the complex ecological interactions in a Connecticut forest between oak trees, mice, deer, and ticks that drive Lyme disease risk.

Ecosystem Interventions

Causes a massive acorn production year in the next simulated year.

0x (None) 1.0x 2x (High)

Reduces the probability of ticks contracting Lyme bacteria from mice.

Population Dynamics (20-Year Horizon)

Acorns

Normal

Mice Index

1.00

Infected Nymphs

1.00

Lyme Risk

Low

Ecological Context

In the oak forests of New England (like Connecticut), the interactions between various species strongly dictate the risk of human Lyme disease transmission.

  • Year 0 (Mast Year): Oak trees occasionally produce a massive abundance of acorns.
  • Year 1 (Mouse Boom): White-footed mice, which feed on acorns, experience a population boom due to the abundant food source. Mice are the primary reservoir for Borrelia burgdorferi (the Lyme disease bacterium).
  • Year 2 (Tick Spike & Lyme Risk): Tick larvae that hatched in Year 1 feed heavily on the abundant, infected mice. By Year 2, these larvae molt into infected nymphs, which are responsible for the vast majority of human Lyme disease cases.

Use the controls to trigger an acorn mast year and observe the delayed effects on the ecosystem. What happens if deer populations are reduced? Can vaccinating mice effectively disrupt the disease cycle?