Part 1: Engage (Anchoring Phenomenon)

Phenomenon: The Connecticut coastline is changing. Some historic beachfront communities are experiencing increased flooding during storms, and shoreline erosion is threatening property and infrastructure. Salt marshes, which provide critical habitat and buffer wave energy, are migrating inland or drowning.

Questions:

  1. What do you notice happening to coastal communities during severe storms or high tides?
  2. What are some possible reasons for these changes along the coast?
  3. What information or data would we need to figure out why this is happening and predict what might happen in the future?

Part 2: Explore (Simulation Investigation)

Objective: Use the Connecticut Coastal Erosion & Sea-Level Rise Simulator to investigate how different global emissions scenarios impact sea-level rise and coastal resilience strategies.

Instructions:

  1. Baseline Data: Open the simulation and select the “Low Emissions (Aggressive Mitigation)” scenario. Note the initial sea level, marsh health, and coastal erosion levels over time. Run the simulation to the year 2100.
  2. Observe Storm Impacts: During the simulation, observe what happens when a Nor’easter or hurricane hits. How does the storm surge affect the coastal community?
  3. Compare Scenarios: Reset the simulation. Now select the “High Emissions (Business as Usual)” scenario. Run the simulation to the year 2100. Record the differences in sea level, marsh health, and erosion compared to the low emissions scenario.
  4. Test Mitigation Strategies: Reset the simulation and keep the “High Emissions” scenario. Implement different mitigation strategies (e.g., Seawall, Salt Marsh Restoration, Managed Retreat).
    • Run the simulation with each strategy individually.
    • Record the effectiveness, cost, and ecological impact of each strategy over time.
    • Observe how these strategies hold up against storm surges as sea levels rise.

Data Collection Table: | Scenario | Sea Level Rise (m) by 2100 | Erosion Level | Marsh Health | Notes on Storm Impacts | | :— | :— | :— | :— | :— | | Low Emissions | | | | | | High Emissions | | | | | | High + Seawall | | | | | | High + Restoration | | | | | | High + Retreat | | | | |

Part 3: Explain (Sensemaking)

  1. Analyze Relationships: Based on your data, how does the global emissions scenario affect the rate of sea-level rise and coastal erosion in Connecticut?
  2. Interpret Models: Look at the data collected for the different mitigation strategies. How does building a seawall affect the salt marsh ecosystem compared to salt marsh restoration or managed retreat?
  3. Identify Uncertainty: Computational models, like this simulator, use complex data to predict future changes. What is one source of uncertainty in predicting the exact impact of sea-level rise on a specific coastal community by the year 2100? How might limitations in the data affect your interpretation of the model’s predictions?

Part 4: Elaborate/Evaluate (Argumentation & Modeling)

Task: Imagine you are presenting a coastal resilience plan to a Connecticut town council.

  1. Construct an Argument: Write a short argument proposing the most effective combination of mitigation strategies for the town under a “Medium Emissions” scenario.
  2. Use Evidence: Support your argument with specific data and observations from the simulation (e.g., predicted sea-level rise, storm surge impacts, cost-effectiveness, and ecological impacts).
  3. Address Stability and Change: Explain whether the changes happening to the coastline (erosion, habitat loss) are reversible or irreversible under the current trajectory, and how your proposed plan addresses these changes.