Earth Systems Interactions Simulator Task

Standards Alignment:

• Performance Expectation: HS-ESS3-6
• Science and Engineering Practice: Using Mathematics and Computational Thinking
• Disciplinary Core Ideas: ESS3.D: Global Climate Change
• Crosscutting Concept: Systems and System Models

Simulation Link: Earth Systems Interactions Simulator

Introduction

Earth is composed of interconnected systems: the atmosphere (air), hydrosphere (water), biosphere (living things), and geosphere (solid earth). Changes in one system can cause ripple effects throughout the others. In this task, you will use a computational model to investigate how human activities—specifically fossil fuel emissions and deforestation—alter the balance of carbon and affect these interacting systems.

Part 1: Baseline Scenario (Current Trajectory)

1. Initial State: Open the simulation and observe the initial settings. Note the default values for the following starting conditions:
   • Fossil Emissions (GtC/yr): __
   • Deforestation Rate: __
   • Atmospheric CO₂: __ ppm
   • Ocean pH: __
   • Biomass: __ %

2. Run the Simulation: Keep the initial settings and click Run Simulation to project 100 years into the future. Observe the changes in the data displays and the graph.

3. Data Collection: Record the final values after 100 years:
   • Atmospheric CO₂: __ ppm
   • Ocean pH: __
   • Biomass: __ %
4. Analysis: Describe the relationship you observe between atmospheric CO₂ and ocean pH. As CO₂ increased, what happened to the pH? Is the ocean becoming more acidic or more basic?

Part 2: Increased Deforestation

1. Reset: Click Reset Simulation.
2. Adjust Variables: Keep Fossil Emissions at 10 GtC/yr, but increase the Deforestation Rate to 4.0.

3. Run: Click Run Simulation.

4. Observation: How does the final Biomass percentage compare to the baseline scenario in Part 1?
5. System Connection: Explain the effect of increased deforestation on atmospheric CO₂ levels. Why did changing the biosphere (trees/biomass) affect the atmosphere?

Part 3: Mitigation (Reducing Emissions)

1. Reset: Click Reset Simulation.
2. Adjust Variables: Lower Fossil Emissions significantly to 2 GtC/yr and lower the Deforestation Rate to 0.5.

3. Run: Click Run Simulation.

4. Comparison: Compare the final Ocean pH in this mitigation scenario to the baseline scenario from Part 1.
   • Final Ocean pH (Mitigation): __
   • Final Ocean pH (Baseline): __
5. Conclusion: Based on the model, how effective is reducing fossil fuel emissions and deforestation at stabilizing Earth’s interconnected systems? Support your answer using evidence from the simulation (CO₂, pH, and Biomass data).