Charting the Future: Analyzing Global Climate Impacts

Part 1: Engage (Predicting 2100)

In 2026, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is approximately 420 ppm. By the year 2100, if human activity continues on its current path, what do you think the average global temperature will be? How much of the world’s glacial ice will remain?

Initial Scoping:

  1. If we stop emitting CO₂ tomorrow, do you think the temperature would immediately stop rising? Why or why not?
  2. What are two “Earth Systems” (e.g., Hydrosphere, Biosphere) that you think are most affected by CO₂ levels?

Part 2: Explore (Modeling Scenarios)

Open the Global Climate Impacts Simulation and use the computational model to generate data for three different human futures.

Scenario A: Business as Usual (BAU)

Keep the Emissions Rate at 40 Gt/yr. Ensure NO technological solutions are selected. Record the values for the year 2100.

Variable 2100 Value (BAU)
CO₂ Concentration (ppm)  
Temperature Anomaly (°C)  
Ocean pH  
Ice Remaining (%)  

Scenario B: High Growth

Slide the Emissions Rate to 60 Gt/yr. What is the predicted Temperature Anomaly in 2100? How does it compare to the BAU scenario?

Scenario C: The Aggressive Mitigation

Keep emissions at 40 Gt/yr but select Renewable Transition AND Carbon Capture (CCS). Describe what happens to the slope of the CO₂ line over the next 80 years.

Part 3: Explain (Interconnected Systems)

  1. The Geoengineering Paradox: Select Solar Geoengineering alone. Notice that the Temperature trend goes down, but the Ocean pH trend remains identical to the “Business as Usual” line. Based on your knowledge of the carbon cycle, why does geoengineering fail to protect the hydrosphere?
  2. Cryosphere Feedback: Use the data to determine the “Threshold.” At what Temperature Anomaly level does the percentage of Glacial Ice fall below 80%?
  3. Causal Chains: Create a flowchart showing the causal relationship between Emissions Rate and Sea Level Rise (using Ice Volume as a proxy).

Part 4: Elaborate/Evaluate (Mitigation Assessment)

The 2.0°C Challenge

The international goal is to keep global warming below 2.0°C by the year 2100.

  1. Design a Solution: Using any combination of Emissions Rate and Technological Solutions, find a configuration that achieves a 2.0°C (or lower) anomaly by 2100.
  2. Justify your Plan: Write a brief “Global Policy Recommendation.”
    • State your chosen variables.
    • Explain why you included (or excluded) Solar Geoengineering in your plan, citing the impact on Ocean pH.
    • Using the term Stability and Change, explain why early action (scaling up solutions now) is more effective than waiting until 2060.