HS-LS4-6 Conservation Modeling

Puerto Rico Leatherback Recovery Lab

Hatchlings on some Puerto Rico beaches crawl inland toward hotel lights instead of the ocean, while armored shorelines and heavy night traffic reduce nesting success. Test which protection bundle actually helps a threatened leatherback population recover without ignoring community access, safety, and cost.

Budget cap

$75,000

Threatened species

Leatherback

Recovery target

20 females

Key tradeoff

Access vs. recovery

1. Commit to a prediction

Choose the intervention you think will matter most before you run the model.

Shielded amber lighting will create the biggest gain. Dune restoration will matter most. A protected nesting corridor will matter most. Patrol coverage will matter most. A balanced bundle will outperform any single fix.

2. Set the human pressures

These sliders represent the current beach conditions your team is trying to improve.

Coastal lighting intensity 78%

Higher values mean more white hotel and street lighting pulling hatchlings inland.

Night beach visitors / vehicles 62

More nighttime traffic raises trampling risk, nest disturbance, and enforcement pressure.

Beach armoring / seawall coverage 58%

Armoring reduces natural nesting space and increases washout pressure during strong surf.

3. Build a protection bundle

Stay under the budget cap and watch for social tradeoffs that can outweigh the biodiversity gain.

Shielded amber lighting Replace bright white beachfront lights with turtle-friendly amber fixtures. Cost: $18,000 | Strong disorientation reduction | Lower night visibility for drivers and walkers Dune restoration and native vegetation Rebuild dunes to buffer wave washout and restore nesting habitat. Cost: $30,000 | Best habitat co-benefit | Temporary construction access loss Seasonal nesting corridor Fence a no-vehicle corridor so nesting females and hatchlings have a protected path. Cost: $14,000 | Big traffic reduction | Largest community-access tradeoff Night patrols and nest monitoring Staff and volunteers rescue disoriented hatchlings, watch nests, and direct visitors. Cost: $22,000 | Rescue boost + safety support | Reliability depends on staffing

Budget + launch status

$40,000 / $75,000

Select a prediction and stay under budget to unlock the run.

4. Revise model assumptions

Use this panel to revise the simulation itself when you decide the default assumptions are not giving enough information.

Baseline nesting females 22

Storm intensity multiplier 1.00x

Implementation reliability 82%

Low reliability models uneven maintenance, missed patrol shifts, or incomplete compliance.

Beach-night preview

White hatchlings head seaward; pink hatchlings are being pulled inland by lights or risky beach conditions.

Ready

Run a scenario to compare turtle recovery with community access, safety, and reliability.

Hatch success

Hatchlings reaching ocean

Year-12 nesting females

Genetic diversity index

Community access

Safety score

Implementation reliability

Bundle cost

Quick interpretation

Run the model to see how your bundle compares with the baseline beach.

Analysis scaffold

Use these prompts to decide whether the model is enough to evaluate your solution.

Expected result check

The recovery target is 20 nesting females and at least 70% genetic diversity by year 12.

Is the simulation sufficient?

Run at least two contrasting designs before deciding whether the model is sufficient.

Prediction reflection

Your prediction check will appear here after the first run.

Forecast for biodiversity

The model will summarize the likely long-term biodiversity effect of your design.

Possible negative consequences

Tradeoff warnings appear here after you run the model.

Model limitations

This panel is filled by the shared simulation logic.

Recovery trajectory

Orange shows your selected bundle, gray shows the baseline with the same beach pressures, and blue tracks genetic diversity.

Selected bundle vs. baseline

Compare the key species metrics side-by-side.

Evidence log

Collect multiple runs so you can judge whether the simulation gives enough information to evaluate a solution.

Trial	Bundle	Hatchlings	Year-12 females	Genetics